Northern Illinois surprised Fresno State, mounting an impressive comeback to win the game. Fresno State seemed to be in command, with a 88% chance to win toward the end of the game, but no lead proved large enough.
Northern Illinois entered the game as the favorite, with a 55% chance to win before the game started. Fresno State led for most of the game, but Northern Illinois seized the lead for good at the end of the game. The game featured many momentum swings, with a total of 14 probabilistic lead changes